Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
